PUBLISHED CLAIM SET
12 claims, each with its interval,
its sample size and its population.
Every figure here was read at its primary source. Each carries a confidence interval where the source reports one, a sample size, the study design, and the population it was measured in — because an effect size without those is not information, it is decoration.
11 of these 12 were wrong in our own corpus before an audit on 2026-07-30. Two would have published as roughly 85–88% mortality reductions; one had its direction inverted. The corrections are printed beside each claim rather than quietly applied — see how these numbers are checked.
Last updated 2026-07-30. Claims lacking a confidence interval or a sample size are excluded from this page — two currently are.
8,000 vs 4,000 steps per day
→ All-cause mortality
- Sample
- 4,840
- Design
- Prospective cohort, NHANES accelerometry
- Population
- US adults ≥40, nationally representative (mean age 56.8, 54% women)
- Follow-up
- Mean 10.1 years
We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.65. The paper reports 0.49.
Limitations. Observational. Step count is measured, not assigned, so reverse causation (illness reducing steps) cannot be excluded.
Saint-Maurice et al. 2020, JAMA →
Cardiorespiratory fitness, elite (≥97.7th percentile) vs low (<25th)
→ All-cause mortality
- Sample
- 122,007
- Design
- Retrospective cohort, treadmill testing
- Population
- Tertiary-care patients referred for symptom-limited exercise testing (mean age 53.4, 59% male)
- Follow-up
- Median 8.4 years
We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.3 against a "top quartile" contrast. The paper uses percentile performance bands, and reports 0.20.
Limitations. A clinical referral population, not the general public — everyone in it had a reason to be sent for a treadmill test. This limits generalisability and likely inflates the contrast.
Mandsager et al. 2018, JAMA Network Open →
Sleep regularity, most vs least regular quintile (Sleep Regularity Index)
→ All-cause mortality
- Sample
- 46,721
- Design
- Prospective cohort, one week of wrist accelerometry
- Population
- UK Biobank adults (mean age 62.8, 55% female, 97% white)
- Follow-up
- Mean 6.3 years
We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.55 with no interval at all.
Limitations. The cohort is 97% white and healthier than the UK average — UK Biobank has known volunteer bias. Regularity was measured over a single week.
Windred et al. 2024, SLEEP →
Grip strength, per 5 kg lower
→ All-cause mortality
- Sample
- 139,691
- Design
- Prospective cohort, 17 countries, Jamar dynamometer
- Population
- Adults 35–70, urban and rural, all income strata
- Follow-up
- Median 4.0 years
We had this wrong. Our corpus attached this to a node named "top quartile", which inverted the meaning — as stored it read as "strong grip increases mortality". The hazard ratio is per 5 kg *lower* grip.
Limitations. Grip strength is a marker of general robustness, not a lever on its own. Training grip in isolation is not what this measures.
Leong et al. 2015, The Lancet (PURE) →
Gait speed, per 0.1 m/s faster
→ Survival
- Sample
- 34,485
- Design
- Pooled individual-participant analysis of 9 cohorts
- Population
- Community-dwelling adults ≥65 (mean age 73.5, 60% women, 80% white)
- Follow-up
- 6–21 years
We had this wrong. Our corpus stored the interval as 0.60–1.20, which crosses 1 and would have read as non-significant.
Limitations. Per-increment, not a threshold. Framing it as ">1.2 m/s is safe" misstates the finding.
Studenski et al. 2011, JAMA →
Olive oil >7 g/day vs never or rarely
→ All-cause mortality
HR 0.81 (a 19% lower risk)
95% CI 0.75–0.87
- Sample
- 92,383
- Design
- Two prospective cohorts, food-frequency questionnaire every 4 years
- Population
- US nurses and health professionals, free of CVD and cancer at baseline
- Follow-up
- 28 years (1990–2018)
We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.12 in a field rendered as a risk ratio, which published as an 88% mortality reduction. The real figure is a 19% lower risk.
Limitations. Olive oil consumption tracks a whole dietary and socioeconomic pattern. Adjustment cannot fully separate the oil from the life it comes with.
Guasch-Ferré et al. 2022, JACC →
Dietary fibre, highest vs lowest intake
→ All-cause mortality
RR 0.85 (a 15% lower risk)
95% CI 0.79–0.91
- Sample
- 80,139 deaths across 12.3M person-years
- Design
- Systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohorts (GRADE: moderate)
- Population
- General adult populations without chronic disease at baseline
- Follow-up
- Pooled
We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.15 in a field rendered as a risk ratio, which published as an 85% reduction.
Limitations. The 25–29 g/day "optimal intake" figure often quoted alongside this comes from a separate analysis in the same paper, not from this estimate.
Reynolds et al. 2019, The Lancet →
Sauna 4–7×/week vs 1×/week
→ All-cause mortality
- Sample
- 2,315 (201 in the exposed group)
- Design
- Prospective cohort (KIHD)
- Population
- Middle-aged men, 42–60, Eastern Finland — men only
- Follow-up
- Median 20.7 years
We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.65 with a wider interval.
Limitations. Men only, one region of Finland, and only 201 people in the most-exposed group. There is no non-sauna reference group in this cohort — the comparison is frequent vs infrequent, not sauna vs none.
Laukkanen et al. 2015, JAMA Internal Medicine →
Religious service attendance, weekly vs never
→ All-cause mortality
- Sample
- 74,534
- Design
- Prospective cohort, Cox and marginal structural models
- Population
- US female nurses, free of CVD and cancer at baseline (mean age ~61)
- Follow-up
- 16 years (1996–2012)
We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.75 with a wider interval and did not record the comparator.
Limitations. Women only. The comparator is never-attenders, which matters: the widely quoted "33% lower" figure is for more-than-weekly attendance, a different contrast.
Li, VanderWeele et al. 2016, JAMA Internal Medicine →
PM2.5, per 10 µg/m³ reduction
→ Life expectancy
+0.61 years
SE 0.20 — the paper reports a standard error, not a confidence interval
- Sample
- 211 county units across 51 US metropolitan areas
- Design
- Ecological first-difference regression (quasi natural experiment)
- Population
- US metropolitan county populations — aggregate, not individuals
- Follow-up
- Two periods, 1978–1982 vs 1997–2001
Limitations. Ecological design: the unit of analysis is a county, not a person, so this cannot be read as an individual-level effect. The realised average gain in the studied areas was about 0.4 years. We do not publish a 95% interval here because the paper does not report one.
Pope et al. 2009, NEJM →
Smoking cessation, by age at quitting
→ Life expectancy
+10 years at 30 · +9 at 40 · +6 at 50 · +3 at 60
None reported by the source
SETTLED
- Sample
- 34,439
- Design
- Prospective cohort, 50 years of follow-up
- Population
- Male British doctors born 1900–1930 — men only
- Follow-up
- 50 years (1951–2001)
We had this wrong. Our corpus stored a bare "+10 years" with a fabricated interval of 8–11. The paper reports no intervals for these figures, and +10 applies only to quitting at 30.
Limitations. Men only, born a century ago, in one profession. The size of the effect is not in doubt; the precision is — which is why no interval is shown.
Doll et al. 2004, BMJ →
Mediterranean diet with extra-virgin olive oil or nuts
→ Major cardiovascular events
HR 0.69 (EVOO) · HR 0.72 (nuts)
95% CI 0.53–0.91 · 0.54–0.95
CONTESTED — read the caveat
- Sample
- 7,447 randomised
- Design
- Randomised controlled trial, multicentre (Spain), 3 arms
- Population
- Adults 55–80 at high cardiovascular risk, no CVD at entry (57% women)
- Follow-up
- ~5 years
We had this wrong. Our corpus stored a cardiac-events figure against a cardiovascular-mortality outcome, conflating the two, with an interval that implied significance.
Limitations. Two things most summaries get wrong. First, the 2013 paper was RETRACTED in June 2018 for randomisation irregularities — one site randomised whole households, another at clinic level — and republished the same day with per-protocol exclusions and propensity-score adjustment. The effect survived nearly unchanged. Second, this result is for cardiovascular EVENTS. Cardiovascular MORTALITY specifically did not reach significance (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.51–1.24). "Mediterranean diet reduces cardiovascular death" overstates what this trial showed.
Estruch et al. 2018, NEJM (PREDIMED) →