PUBLISHED CLAIM SET

12 claims, each with its interval,
its sample size and its population.

Every figure here was read at its primary source. Each carries a confidence interval where the source reports one, a sample size, the study design, and the population it was measured in — because an effect size without those is not information, it is decoration.

11 of these 12 were wrong in our own corpus before an audit on 2026-07-30. Two would have published as roughly 85–88% mortality reductions; one had its direction inverted. The corrections are printed beside each claim rather than quietly applied — see how these numbers are checked.

Last updated 2026-07-30. Claims lacking a confidence interval or a sample size are excluded from this page — two currently are.

8,000 vs 4,000 steps per day
All-cause mortality
HR 0.49
95% CI 0.44–0.55
Sample
4,840
Design
Prospective cohort, NHANES accelerometry
Population
US adults ≥40, nationally representative (mean age 56.8, 54% women)
Follow-up
Mean 10.1 years

We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.65. The paper reports 0.49.

Limitations. Observational. Step count is measured, not assigned, so reverse causation (illness reducing steps) cannot be excluded.

Saint-Maurice et al. 2020, JAMA

Cardiorespiratory fitness, elite (≥97.7th percentile) vs low (<25th)
All-cause mortality
HR 0.20
95% CI 0.16–0.24
Sample
122,007
Design
Retrospective cohort, treadmill testing
Population
Tertiary-care patients referred for symptom-limited exercise testing (mean age 53.4, 59% male)
Follow-up
Median 8.4 years

We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.3 against a "top quartile" contrast. The paper uses percentile performance bands, and reports 0.20.

Limitations. A clinical referral population, not the general public — everyone in it had a reason to be sent for a treadmill test. This limits generalisability and likely inflates the contrast.

Mandsager et al. 2018, JAMA Network Open

Sleep regularity, most vs least regular quintile (Sleep Regularity Index)
All-cause mortality
HR 0.70
95% CI 0.59–0.83
Sample
46,721
Design
Prospective cohort, one week of wrist accelerometry
Population
UK Biobank adults (mean age 62.8, 55% female, 97% white)
Follow-up
Mean 6.3 years

We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.55 with no interval at all.

Limitations. The cohort is 97% white and healthier than the UK average — UK Biobank has known volunteer bias. Regularity was measured over a single week.

Windred et al. 2024, SLEEP

Grip strength, per 5 kg lower
All-cause mortality
HR 1.16
95% CI 1.13–1.20
Sample
139,691
Design
Prospective cohort, 17 countries, Jamar dynamometer
Population
Adults 35–70, urban and rural, all income strata
Follow-up
Median 4.0 years

We had this wrong. Our corpus attached this to a node named "top quartile", which inverted the meaning — as stored it read as "strong grip increases mortality". The hazard ratio is per 5 kg *lower* grip.

Limitations. Grip strength is a marker of general robustness, not a lever on its own. Training grip in isolation is not what this measures.

Leong et al. 2015, The Lancet (PURE)

Gait speed, per 0.1 m/s faster
Survival
HR 0.88
95% CI 0.87–0.90
Sample
34,485
Design
Pooled individual-participant analysis of 9 cohorts
Population
Community-dwelling adults ≥65 (mean age 73.5, 60% women, 80% white)
Follow-up
6–21 years

We had this wrong. Our corpus stored the interval as 0.60–1.20, which crosses 1 and would have read as non-significant.

Limitations. Per-increment, not a threshold. Framing it as ">1.2 m/s is safe" misstates the finding.

Studenski et al. 2011, JAMA

Olive oil >7 g/day vs never or rarely
All-cause mortality
HR 0.81 (a 19% lower risk)
95% CI 0.75–0.87
Sample
92,383
Design
Two prospective cohorts, food-frequency questionnaire every 4 years
Population
US nurses and health professionals, free of CVD and cancer at baseline
Follow-up
28 years (1990–2018)

We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.12 in a field rendered as a risk ratio, which published as an 88% mortality reduction. The real figure is a 19% lower risk.

Limitations. Olive oil consumption tracks a whole dietary and socioeconomic pattern. Adjustment cannot fully separate the oil from the life it comes with.

Guasch-Ferré et al. 2022, JACC

Dietary fibre, highest vs lowest intake
All-cause mortality
RR 0.85 (a 15% lower risk)
95% CI 0.79–0.91
Sample
80,139 deaths across 12.3M person-years
Design
Systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohorts (GRADE: moderate)
Population
General adult populations without chronic disease at baseline
Follow-up
Pooled

We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.15 in a field rendered as a risk ratio, which published as an 85% reduction.

Limitations. The 25–29 g/day "optimal intake" figure often quoted alongside this comes from a separate analysis in the same paper, not from this estimate.

Reynolds et al. 2019, The Lancet

Sauna 4–7×/week vs 1×/week
All-cause mortality
HR 0.60
95% CI 0.46–0.80
Sample
2,315 (201 in the exposed group)
Design
Prospective cohort (KIHD)
Population
Middle-aged men, 42–60, Eastern Finland — men only
Follow-up
Median 20.7 years

We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.65 with a wider interval.

Limitations. Men only, one region of Finland, and only 201 people in the most-exposed group. There is no non-sauna reference group in this cohort — the comparison is frequent vs infrequent, not sauna vs none.

Laukkanen et al. 2015, JAMA Internal Medicine

Religious service attendance, weekly vs never
All-cause mortality
HR 0.74
95% CI 0.70–0.78
Sample
74,534
Design
Prospective cohort, Cox and marginal structural models
Population
US female nurses, free of CVD and cancer at baseline (mean age ~61)
Follow-up
16 years (1996–2012)

We had this wrong. Our corpus stored 0.75 with a wider interval and did not record the comparator.

Limitations. Women only. The comparator is never-attenders, which matters: the widely quoted "33% lower" figure is for more-than-weekly attendance, a different contrast.

Li, VanderWeele et al. 2016, JAMA Internal Medicine

PM2.5, per 10 µg/m³ reduction
Life expectancy
+0.61 years
SE 0.20 — the paper reports a standard error, not a confidence interval
Sample
211 county units across 51 US metropolitan areas
Design
Ecological first-difference regression (quasi natural experiment)
Population
US metropolitan county populations — aggregate, not individuals
Follow-up
Two periods, 1978–1982 vs 1997–2001

Limitations. Ecological design: the unit of analysis is a county, not a person, so this cannot be read as an individual-level effect. The realised average gain in the studied areas was about 0.4 years. We do not publish a 95% interval here because the paper does not report one.

Pope et al. 2009, NEJM

Smoking cessation, by age at quitting
Life expectancy
+10 years at 30 · +9 at 40 · +6 at 50 · +3 at 60
None reported by the source
SETTLED
Sample
34,439
Design
Prospective cohort, 50 years of follow-up
Population
Male British doctors born 1900–1930 — men only
Follow-up
50 years (1951–2001)

We had this wrong. Our corpus stored a bare "+10 years" with a fabricated interval of 8–11. The paper reports no intervals for these figures, and +10 applies only to quitting at 30.

Limitations. Men only, born a century ago, in one profession. The size of the effect is not in doubt; the precision is — which is why no interval is shown.

Doll et al. 2004, BMJ

Mediterranean diet with extra-virgin olive oil or nuts
Major cardiovascular events
HR 0.69 (EVOO) · HR 0.72 (nuts)
95% CI 0.53–0.91 · 0.54–0.95
CONTESTED — read the caveat
Sample
7,447 randomised
Design
Randomised controlled trial, multicentre (Spain), 3 arms
Population
Adults 55–80 at high cardiovascular risk, no CVD at entry (57% women)
Follow-up
~5 years

We had this wrong. Our corpus stored a cardiac-events figure against a cardiovascular-mortality outcome, conflating the two, with an interval that implied significance.

Limitations. Two things most summaries get wrong. First, the 2013 paper was RETRACTED in June 2018 for randomisation irregularities — one site randomised whole households, another at clinic level — and republished the same day with per-protocol exclusions and propensity-score adjustment. The effect survived nearly unchanged. Second, this result is for cardiovascular EVENTS. Cardiovascular MORTALITY specifically did not reach significance (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.51–1.24). "Mediterranean diet reduces cardiovascular death" overstates what this trial showed.

Estruch et al. 2018, NEJM (PREDIMED)

What is not on this page

  • Claims without an interval or a sample size. Nine live claims in our corpus lack one or both. They are excluded rather than published with the gap hidden.
  • The substrate specification. Internal until Year 3, by a decision recorded before this page existed.
  • Any user data, in any form. The doctrine learns from users; the doctrine never contains users. Nothing on this page is derived from anyone’s assessment.
  • Our own aggregate corpus counts as a quality signal. A validator-review count says nothing about whether a number is right — our audit found a rendering bug that had passed every automated check.

Reuse anything here with attribution. Were the Blue Zones debunked? applies the same standard to the research this field is named after.

If you operate a residential community that already exists and is occupied, this is the evidence base we use to measure it — see whether your community is a match.